(this one's been simmering a while; we now join this argument, already in progress)
My cubicle neighbor and I
argue about discuss Social Security on a semi-regular basis. You see, he’s on the opposite end of the career spectrum from me. He’s only a few years away from retirement while I’m just a few years out of school. He fully expects to get his social security check each month when he retires. And I fully expect him to as well. I just don’t think I’ll be getting one.
Assumptions The U.S. Government will not collapse and the world will not end before I retire. Let’s face it, if the world ends or the government collapses, Social Security is a moot point. So we’ll just assume the
end of the Mayan calendar passes without incident and move on.
I will live long enough to retire. Of course I won’t collect Social Security if I don’t live long enough to retire. So we’ll assume this as well.
Life expectancy will continue to increase at the rate of 1 year per decade. Those who believe we will achieve virtual immortality in my lifetime will think this too conservative. Others who see the obesity epidemic increasing the incidence of life-threatening conditions such as heart disease and diabetes may think I’m being optimistic. So we’ll just stick with current trends.
Given the above, the retirement age will increase to compensate for increased life expectancy So by the time I’m ready to retire, the retirement age will be 70. This means I will retire in late 2050, 44 and a half years from now.
Things working for Social Security’s future.Entitlement programs are hard to get rid of. This is the strongest argument for why Social Security will still be around in 44 years. It’s politically awkward to tell people that they can’t have the money they’ve been expecting. “My grandparents got Social Security. My parents get Social Security. Why can’t I get Social Security?” And then the politicians scramble to find a way to cover the costs, even if it means cutting national defense (but not their own salaries).
Other entitlement programs are closer to a crisis, so “fixing” Social Security will be put off indefinitely. Medicare and Medicaid are the big money black holes in the budget right now, and they’re getting larger. Who cares if Social Security won’t be able to pay full benefits in 35 years?
No one wants to see old people dying broke in the streets. It’s just creepy.
Things working against Social SecuritySocial Security is NOT a savings plan. When people talk about Social Security, they often talk about “paying into” Social Security. You are not. You are paying for the people on Social Security now. People still working in the trenches and cubicles after you retire will be paying for your benefits then. And what you get out of Social Security
isn’t really based on what you put in, as far as I can tell. (Is it just me, or does this seem like another way middle-income earners are screwed?)
The AARP says that
Social Security is just fine – 100% of benefits can be paid out until 2041 (9 years before I'll be retiring) and the government is “investing” the money in U.S. Treasury bonds. But a U.S. Treasury bond is simply an investment in the government. The government is taking tax dollars out of one pocket and putting it into another, with the promise that they’ll pay it back with interest. So while Social Security is taking in more than it’s paying out, the government has a nice little slush fund to dip in to. When Social Security starts taking out more money than it takes in, not only will that slush fund be gone, but general tax revenues will also have to go toward paying off what was essentially a loan. To complicate matters, we’re not the only ones investing in Treasury bonds.
Other countries are too. So when they start calling up their debt to pay for their own overwhelmed social programs, we may find ourselves in even greater trouble.
Tax reform. Oh, to have a simpler tax code! It would be nice if there were just a
consumption tax, or
flat tax for all income (Corporate income? Personal income? Dividends? Capital gains? It doesn’t matter! It’s all the same!). Sadly, you would have to eliminate tax shelters like 401ks and IRAs that encourage retirement savings, which would end up increasing people’s dependence on Social Security. But the payroll tax (some of which goes towards Social Security) would have to be eliminated as well. Then the government would be forced to treat Social Security like what it really is – a welfare program for old and/or disabled individuals or widows/widowers and their children. They would have to pull the costs of Social Security out of the general revenue with no regard to how much each person supposedly “put in”. With the switch in perception from “investment” to “welfare”, people would start asking (more so than they might already) why we’re paying perfectly healthy and wealthy people who happen to be older and not working so much money each month. Which brings us to…
Medicare/Medicaid/Social Security reform.
Healthcare costs are increasing, making the need to reform Medicare and Medicaid all the more urgent. The
need to reform Medicare and Medicaid
sooner rather than later may distract from Social Security’s longer-term problems, or Social Security might just be lumped together with Medicare and Medicaid in the next big reform movement. I think Social Security as we know it – with retirement ages and benefits based on the individual’s average income – could be eliminated, replaced by something that would still provide
something when our retirement savings run dangerously low (thus avoiding the “old people dying broke in the streets” epidemic of 2042). Maybe you would just be put on plain old welfare. Maybe you’d have to live in subsidized housing or a government-run nursing home. Or maybe you’d have to
go on a crime spree and spend the rest of your days in prison. Rest assured, the government would find something to do with you. But your options would be limited.
I feel more in control of my own savings. Let’s face it, a lot can happen in 44 years. I’d rather save with the assumption that I won’t get Social Security and be pleasantly surprised by the windfall when I retire than assume that I
will get Social Security, only to find I’m too wealthy, healthy, or young to get those benefits (or Social Security as we know it is simply gone) when I finally decide to flee the cubicle farm. Yes, I could run into problems of my own that would put a huge dent in my savings. But my hope is that all of the money I’m paying for various types of insurance (which I could otherwise be spending or saving) will count for something.
I’m sure I’ve left something out. But I can always address that in the comments.