Emily Updates
Okay, I'm going to do the same thing I did with Dennis. All Emily updates in this post.
7/11/05 11:00 pm - Emily is officially a tropical storm. Here's the projected path. Cuba's just not having a good month, although if the storm passes north of the island, it will be much better than passing south. She's not terribly organized at the moment, but she's over warmer waters now, which will provide more fuel for the slowly-growing fire. If Emily does, in fact, go just north of Cuba, she'll be more likely to head up the Atlantic coast than into the Gulf. Hopefully, Discovery's launch on Wednesday won't get delayed, because Emily will almost certainly effect the launch site by the beginning of next week. If they can't launch prior to Emily's arrival, they'll have to take Discovery off the launch pad to protect it.
7/12/05 11:00 pm - Uh, yeah. Emily is veering toward South America, except the forcast has her turning north into the Caribbean. And normally systems this far south break apart once they enter the Caribbean, but some meteorologists appear to have given up on precident this year. It's Hurricane Season 2005! Anything goes! Hurricanes could form in the southern hemisphere for all we know! New York? I do believe you're due for a major hurricane. New Foundland? You too. This season is just getting started.
7/13/05 11:30 pm - Emily finally pulled her act together and formed into a hurricane and... woah! 90 mph already. After days of holding to tropical storm strength out in the Atlantic, she seems to like the warm waters just north of South America where tropical systems usually... break up. I did say we were throwing out the rule book this season, right? The GFDL model, which has apparently been the most accurate this year, has Emily passing just north of the Yucatan Penninsula. The official forcast has it hitting the penninsula. Either way, it has a pretty clear path that will allow it to intensify to a major hurricane before it hits any large land masses.
7/14/05 11:30 pm - Emily is now a strong category 3 with sustained winds of 125 mph and frighteningly high gusts up to 155 mph. The current minimum pressure suggests that Emily is not eager to strengthen any further, though it will still probably become a Cat 4. Though an eye was apparent in earlier satellite imagery, it seems to have disappeared again. The official forcast has it skimming the Yucatan as a Cat 3 before moving on the northern Mexico/southern Texas. Depending on how much time it spends on the penninsula, Emily could just be a tropical storm by the time it effects any part of the U.S., or it could still be a major hurricane. My biggest concern is the patch of very warm water in the Caribbean between the Yucatan and Texas. Even if Emily is weakened by a period of landfall, she could strengthen very rapidly over these waters (assuming no atmospheric obstacles such as shear).
7/16/05 10:22 am - Emily peaked at a category 4 storm yesterday, weakened to a category 2, hovered between strong Cat 2 and weak Cat 3, weakened down to a Cat 1, and now today she's back up to a Cat 4 with her strongest winds yet at 140 mph. That's quite a bit of fluctuation. She's entering warming waters now and pulling away from any large land masses that might interfere with formation. The eye is clearly visible on satellite. She's a rather small-looking hurricane, very compact. Given her somewhat tempermental history, we can only hope this means she is libel to break apart quickly once she hits land. Unfortunately, she has some much time and warm water in which to grow, she may be a category 5 by the time she hits the Yucatan. Depending on where she hits, even if she breaks apart relatively quickly, she may still be a hurricane when she re-emerges into the Gulf. According to the five day forcast, she will hit near the TexMex boarder on Wednesday. That's too far out for the intensity forcast, but intensity forcasts are notoriously bad anyway. I wouldn't be surprised if she came off the Yucatan and restrengthened to a Cat 4 before hitting the mainland. (Actually, given the season so far, I would be surprised if she didn't restrengthen to a Cat 4).
7/16/05 11:00 am - The latest updates show that Emily's maximum sustained winds have reached 145 mph and the central pressure has dropped 7 mb in three hours to 943 mb. Wind gusts are up to 180 mph. That pressure drop means she is still strengthening, and rapidly. She's gunning for Dennis' record as the strongest July hurricane ever. Dennis peaked at 150 mph sustained winds and a central pressure of 930 mb. Emily has just 5 mph and 13 mb to go for a tie.
Jamaica is feeling tropical storm force winds now, but the winds should not get up to hurricane strength. The biggest concern for them at this point would be rain. The same will probably go for Grand Cayman when Emily passes south of it tomorrow.
7/16/05 2:18 pm - Well, Emily officially has Dennis beat for wind speed. Her maximum sustained winds are up to 155 mph, beating out Dennis' peak and putting her about 1 mph below Cat 5. In terms of central pressure, she still has a little ways to go to beat Dennis. Currently, the pressure is 937 mb. That's a 6 mb drop from the 11 o'clock advisory, and that's after a 7 mb drop from the 8 am to the 11 am advisory this morning. There is a good chance she will continue to strengthen, though an eyewall replacement cycle could interfere.
7/16/05 8:17 pm - Emily has now surpassed Dennis both in terms of wind speed (still 155 mph) and central pressure (now 929 mb). The eye is a nice semetrical black hole in the center of the cloud formation. Grand Cayman should start feeling the effects of Emily soon if it isn't already. Landfall in the Yucatan should be around early Monday morning, most likely as a category 4. It looks like it will be over the penninsula longer and over the Gulf for less time than earlier forcasts predicted. However, that warm patch between the Yucatan and Texas as grown, giving Emily plenty of opportunity to restrengthen.
7/17/05 5:00 pm - Emily is weakening a little, which is good news for the Yucatan. However, she is still a powerful category 4 storm with sustained winds of 145 mph, so she is still capable of causing considerable damage. Current predictions are that she will hit south of the TexMex boarder as a Cat 3, but again, intensity forcasts are notoriously inaccurate. She could start to break up before making landfall as Dennis did on the mainland, or she could make one last go at strengthening.
7/17/05 11:00 pm - Emily's pressure is still rising and the maximum sustained winds are down to 135 mph. Landfall on the Yucatan Penninsula should come in the next couple of hours.
7/18/05 8:42 pm - Emily is just barely a hurricane now, but she is approaching warm waters. I don't think she'll regain category 4 status, but she may still manage to become a major hurricane again by the time she makes her second and final landfall in northeast Mexico on Wednesday. Southern Texas will probably just get a rain event out of this.
7/19/05 11:00 pm - Emily is once again a category 3 hurricane as it approaches Mexico, with the potential to reach category 4 before landfall. Tropical storm force winds have already reached land. Evidentally, the storm stalled for a little while earlier today, and is now moving slowly toward land. Unfortunately, this means high winds will be affecting Mexico and Texas for a long time before the storm finally makes landfall and starts to weaken.
7/20/05 11:17 pm - Emily made landfall in Mexico early Wednesday morning as a category 3 with winds of 125 mph. She has now weakened to a tropical storm with winds of 50 mph. Soon, it will be little more than a rain event, which I believe they actually need in that area right now. Think the rain will make it to Phoenix?
7/11/05 11:00 pm - Emily is officially a tropical storm. Here's the projected path. Cuba's just not having a good month, although if the storm passes north of the island, it will be much better than passing south. She's not terribly organized at the moment, but she's over warmer waters now, which will provide more fuel for the slowly-growing fire. If Emily does, in fact, go just north of Cuba, she'll be more likely to head up the Atlantic coast than into the Gulf. Hopefully, Discovery's launch on Wednesday won't get delayed, because Emily will almost certainly effect the launch site by the beginning of next week. If they can't launch prior to Emily's arrival, they'll have to take Discovery off the launch pad to protect it.
7/12/05 11:00 pm - Uh, yeah. Emily is veering toward South America, except the forcast has her turning north into the Caribbean. And normally systems this far south break apart once they enter the Caribbean, but some meteorologists appear to have given up on precident this year. It's Hurricane Season 2005! Anything goes! Hurricanes could form in the southern hemisphere for all we know! New York? I do believe you're due for a major hurricane. New Foundland? You too. This season is just getting started.
7/13/05 11:30 pm - Emily finally pulled her act together and formed into a hurricane and... woah! 90 mph already. After days of holding to tropical storm strength out in the Atlantic, she seems to like the warm waters just north of South America where tropical systems usually... break up. I did say we were throwing out the rule book this season, right? The GFDL model, which has apparently been the most accurate this year, has Emily passing just north of the Yucatan Penninsula. The official forcast has it hitting the penninsula. Either way, it has a pretty clear path that will allow it to intensify to a major hurricane before it hits any large land masses.
7/14/05 11:30 pm - Emily is now a strong category 3 with sustained winds of 125 mph and frighteningly high gusts up to 155 mph. The current minimum pressure suggests that Emily is not eager to strengthen any further, though it will still probably become a Cat 4. Though an eye was apparent in earlier satellite imagery, it seems to have disappeared again. The official forcast has it skimming the Yucatan as a Cat 3 before moving on the northern Mexico/southern Texas. Depending on how much time it spends on the penninsula, Emily could just be a tropical storm by the time it effects any part of the U.S., or it could still be a major hurricane. My biggest concern is the patch of very warm water in the Caribbean between the Yucatan and Texas. Even if Emily is weakened by a period of landfall, she could strengthen very rapidly over these waters (assuming no atmospheric obstacles such as shear).
7/16/05 10:22 am - Emily peaked at a category 4 storm yesterday, weakened to a category 2, hovered between strong Cat 2 and weak Cat 3, weakened down to a Cat 1, and now today she's back up to a Cat 4 with her strongest winds yet at 140 mph. That's quite a bit of fluctuation. She's entering warming waters now and pulling away from any large land masses that might interfere with formation. The eye is clearly visible on satellite. She's a rather small-looking hurricane, very compact. Given her somewhat tempermental history, we can only hope this means she is libel to break apart quickly once she hits land. Unfortunately, she has some much time and warm water in which to grow, she may be a category 5 by the time she hits the Yucatan. Depending on where she hits, even if she breaks apart relatively quickly, she may still be a hurricane when she re-emerges into the Gulf. According to the five day forcast, she will hit near the TexMex boarder on Wednesday. That's too far out for the intensity forcast, but intensity forcasts are notoriously bad anyway. I wouldn't be surprised if she came off the Yucatan and restrengthened to a Cat 4 before hitting the mainland. (Actually, given the season so far, I would be surprised if she didn't restrengthen to a Cat 4).
7/16/05 11:00 am - The latest updates show that Emily's maximum sustained winds have reached 145 mph and the central pressure has dropped 7 mb in three hours to 943 mb. Wind gusts are up to 180 mph. That pressure drop means she is still strengthening, and rapidly. She's gunning for Dennis' record as the strongest July hurricane ever. Dennis peaked at 150 mph sustained winds and a central pressure of 930 mb. Emily has just 5 mph and 13 mb to go for a tie.
Jamaica is feeling tropical storm force winds now, but the winds should not get up to hurricane strength. The biggest concern for them at this point would be rain. The same will probably go for Grand Cayman when Emily passes south of it tomorrow.
7/16/05 2:18 pm - Well, Emily officially has Dennis beat for wind speed. Her maximum sustained winds are up to 155 mph, beating out Dennis' peak and putting her about 1 mph below Cat 5. In terms of central pressure, she still has a little ways to go to beat Dennis. Currently, the pressure is 937 mb. That's a 6 mb drop from the 11 o'clock advisory, and that's after a 7 mb drop from the 8 am to the 11 am advisory this morning. There is a good chance she will continue to strengthen, though an eyewall replacement cycle could interfere.
7/16/05 8:17 pm - Emily has now surpassed Dennis both in terms of wind speed (still 155 mph) and central pressure (now 929 mb). The eye is a nice semetrical black hole in the center of the cloud formation. Grand Cayman should start feeling the effects of Emily soon if it isn't already. Landfall in the Yucatan should be around early Monday morning, most likely as a category 4. It looks like it will be over the penninsula longer and over the Gulf for less time than earlier forcasts predicted. However, that warm patch between the Yucatan and Texas as grown, giving Emily plenty of opportunity to restrengthen.
7/17/05 5:00 pm - Emily is weakening a little, which is good news for the Yucatan. However, she is still a powerful category 4 storm with sustained winds of 145 mph, so she is still capable of causing considerable damage. Current predictions are that she will hit south of the TexMex boarder as a Cat 3, but again, intensity forcasts are notoriously inaccurate. She could start to break up before making landfall as Dennis did on the mainland, or she could make one last go at strengthening.
7/17/05 11:00 pm - Emily's pressure is still rising and the maximum sustained winds are down to 135 mph. Landfall on the Yucatan Penninsula should come in the next couple of hours.
7/18/05 8:42 pm - Emily is just barely a hurricane now, but she is approaching warm waters. I don't think she'll regain category 4 status, but she may still manage to become a major hurricane again by the time she makes her second and final landfall in northeast Mexico on Wednesday. Southern Texas will probably just get a rain event out of this.
7/19/05 11:00 pm - Emily is once again a category 3 hurricane as it approaches Mexico, with the potential to reach category 4 before landfall. Tropical storm force winds have already reached land. Evidentally, the storm stalled for a little while earlier today, and is now moving slowly toward land. Unfortunately, this means high winds will be affecting Mexico and Texas for a long time before the storm finally makes landfall and starts to weaken.
7/20/05 11:17 pm - Emily made landfall in Mexico early Wednesday morning as a category 3 with winds of 125 mph. She has now weakened to a tropical storm with winds of 50 mph. Soon, it will be little more than a rain event, which I believe they actually need in that area right now. Think the rain will make it to Phoenix?
posted by SpakKadi at 11:12 PM
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