State of Electoral College

As we learned in the last election, it's the electoral college, not the popular vote that counts. By Slate's count, Kerry is behind Bush by only 18 electoral votes. Now, some of the states haven't been polled since before the presidential debate. However, most of those are states that are pretty solidly in favor of one candidate or the other. Oregon, West Virginia, Virginia, and Delaware are the only "swing states" by Slate's definition that haven't been polled since the presidential debate.

There is something that all of the polls that target likely voters (which would be most of them) fail to account for. I think many more young people are going to vote this year. We are the ones being sent to fight in Iraq and we are the ones least able to find a job in Bush's economy (why hire and train an entry-level person when you can hire a desperate experienced person at the same salary who can hit the ground running). These young voters probably don't show up in the "likely" voter category. They could very well swing the election and the pollsters won't see it coming.

But which way will it swing? My sister and my best friend lean left. I'm independent and leaning away from Bush. Others are independent and leaning toward Bush. And my cousin is far (but not extremely far) to the right. I have no idea how representative that crossection is, but I won't be surprised if Bush wins.

Debate in 90 minutes. Be sure to watch. These people are vying for your future.

Update: Joe Trippi just said what I basically just said on MSNBC.