Friday, October 21, 2005

Wilma Updates

Wilma is battering the Yucatan at the moment. It doesn't seem to be weakening all that quickly, and the system is moving slowly. At 5 am, the winds were at 150 mph and the central pressure was 930 mb. The pressure actually dropped briefly, but is now up to 932 mb with winds of 140 mph. And that's after buzz-sawing land all day. This area was effected by Emily earlier this year, which was also a category 4 at landfall. Only Wilma is moving slower, which means the wind and rain will last longer, especially at the rate it is weakening. So how will this look on Sunday evening?

The official forcast has it emerging in the Gulf as a category 2 on Saturday evening. But the longer it stays over land, the weaker it gets. So basically, the more battered the Yucatan gets, the better off Florida will be.

Update, Sunday, Oct. 23, 9:30 AM - Hurricane force winds have finally moved offshore of the Yucatan, though tropical storm force winds are effected both the Yucatan and Cuba. Wilma is now a solider category 2 with 100 mph winds and a central pressure of 961 mb. And the official forcast has been moved west, acknowledging the potential for the remants to make landfall in Canada or the Northeast U.S. by mid-week. It's still uncertain if Wilma will strengthen before hitting Florida, but intensity predictions are always the most difficult to make.

I heard a report on the radio that up to 4 feet of rain has fallen in some places, though I'm having difficulty finding official storm totals. Florida will hopefully not have to deal with high amounts of rain, since Wilma will be moving much faster when it hits there.

Update, Monday, Oct. 24, 8:00 AM - Wilma has made landfall as a category 3 hurricane in southwestern Florida. It looks like it missed the southern Keys, but judging by radar, the eyewall may hit Miami while Wilma is a weak category 3 or strong category 2. Palm Beach is also at risk.

Update, Monday,Oct. 24, 5:45 PM - Wilma refuses to die. She weakened to a strong category 2 when passing over Florida, but quickly restrengthened to a solid category 3 after emerging in the Atlantic. It's looking less likely now that she will effect the U.S. again, though Canada should keep an eye on this system.

Rainfall totals in some parts of Florida reached up to ten inches, and that was with the eye being over land for less than 12 hours. 35% of Key West is under water. Of course, as with any hurricane, it may be several days before a real picture of the damage starts to come into focus. However, I think western Cuba got the worst deal in all of this, though it's certainly in a tough competition with the Yucatan. Tropical storm force winds wipped them as Wilma swept over the Yucatan and continued to effect them as it turned toward Florida. They also got plenty of rain. They may never have gotten hurricane force winds, but tropical storm force winds for nearly three days combined with buckets of rain is no picnic either.

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